Monday, April 15, 2024

What happens in Michigan will give us a good idea about what might happen in the future Republican primary elections

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The race to become the Republican presidential candidate has been going on for about a month and a half. Only three states, Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, have had elections where both Donald Trump and Nikki Haley were candidates. They spent a lot of time in these states, focusing on them one by one.

But now, with the Michigan primary coming up, things are changing. Neither Trump nor Haley could give much attention to Michigan. This will show us how the Republican primary will go as it becomes a nationwide competition in the next three weeks.

For Trump, this seems like good news. He’s expected to do really well in Michigan. Recent polls show him way ahead of Haley, with 72% support compared to her 27%. This lead is even bigger than what he had in the earlier contests.

Although Haley managed to catch up with Trump in New Hampshire and South Carolina, she started far behind in the polls. In South Carolina, she was down by 35 points three weeks before the election but only lost by 20 points after campaigning for weeks.

Haley’s running out of time in Michigan with the primary happening soon. She only started building her team and doing ads here recently.

If Trump’s support in Michigan hasn’t changed much since December, it’ll be similar to the national polls. Michigan is the first state where Trump is doing really well, over 70% in polls, just like the national Republican polls.

Haley couldn’t spend much time in Michigan because the South Carolina primary is just three days before.

But the issue is, the rest of the campaign is like this too. We’re entering a phase where things go national fast, and you can’t focus too much on one state.

Only 6% of Republican delegates are assigned till now. After Super Tuesday on March 5, about 50% will be done. In two weeks, it’s 56%, and in three weeks, it’s 71%. So, most GOP delegates will be chosen in the next three weeks.

Haley faces another problem with how delegates are given in upcoming states. Unlike Democrats and Iowa/New Hampshire Republicans, where if you get 25% votes, you get 25% delegates, most upcoming states give the winner most or all delegates.

If Trump wins big, he gets almost all delegates. This happened in South Carolina where he won 60% votes but got 94% delegates.

Looking at polls from California and Texas, the two biggest GOP states on Super Tuesday, Trump is ahead by a lot – about 40 points in California and 70 points in Texas over Haley.

If the polls are right, Trump could have most delegates by March 12 or at least by March 19. So, Haley needs to change things quickly; otherwise, her campaign might not last long after Michigan.

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