Monday, April 15, 2024

The results from this year’s surveys about Republican elections reveal how Trump has influenced and changed the Republican Party

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After Super Tuesday, CNN looked at the voting patterns in the Republican presidential races across six states: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, and California. They found that most Republican voters in these states see former President Trump as the image of their party. Even if Trump were convicted of a crime, a majority in these states still think he’s fit for the presidency. Interestingly, few GOP voters in these states acknowledge President Biden’s win in the 2020 election.

Exit polls, which help understand voters’ profiles and views, were used for this analysis. However, these polls are more like estimates and not exact measurements of the electorate. The numbers might change as they haven’t been adjusted to match the final election results. But, looking at these six states, Trump is doing well, leading towards his third GOP nomination. Nikki Haley, his last rival, is struggling to gain delegates.

The views on Trump’s fitness and acceptance of the 2020 election results vary across states, but the overall sentiment is similar. In California, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Iowa, over 60% believe Trump is fit for the presidency, even if convicted. In New Hampshire and Virginia, it’s a bit less, but Trump still dominates. Only around 46% of New Hampshire voters accepted Biden’s win, and the numbers decrease in other states.

Interestingly, there’s a split between Trump and Haley supporters. Three-quarters or more of Trump’s backers reject the 2020 election results, while the same percentage of Haley supporters acknowledge Biden’s win. However, there are signs that some Trump supporters are still hesitant, especially when asked if they’d vote Republican in November, regardless of the nominee.

In all six states, a significant minority identifies with the “Make American Great Again” (MAGA) movement. Most voters prioritize the economy and immigration over foreign policy or abortion. A majority in these states agrees with Trump’s tough stance on immigration, favoring deportation over offering a chance for legal status to undocumented immigrants.

On abortion policy, GOP voters are divided post-Roe v. Wade. Some states support a federal law banning most or all abortions, while others oppose it. Most GOP voters in Iowa and half in North and South Carolina favor a ban, while majorities in California, Virginia, and New Hampshire oppose it.

Across all six states, the majority of GOP voters identify as conservatives, with variations in the intensity of their conservatism. Trump gains the most support from those who call themselves “very conservative.” He also does well among voters who are dissatisfied or angry with the current state of the US.

This divide between Trump and Haley supporters is also reflected in what they prioritize in a candidate. Trump’s supporters look for a fighter, while Haley’s supporters value temperament or shared values. These insights are based on exit polls conducted in the Republican caucuses and primaries in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, and California.

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