Wednesday, April 17, 2024

People who support Haley could play a big role in determining what happens to Biden in November. Let me explain why

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As the South Carolina Republican primary approaches, it seems Nikki Haley may not have enough support to stop Donald Trump from winning the GOP presidential nomination. However, there’s a growing possibility that her supporters might prevent Trump from winning the general election. If her voters stay unhappy with Trump, it could be a problem for him.

Early GOP contests show that the people who strongly dislike Trump are more likely to support Nikki Haley. In a possible rematch with Trump, President Joe Biden needs to win over some of these usually Republican-leaning voters to counter the dissatisfaction shown in polls about his own performance.

Most polls indicate that Biden is struggling to gain support from the segment of GOP voters who strongly support Nikki Haley. However, voters in Iowa and New Hampshire, who back Haley, express strong negative views about Trump. This could be an opportunity for Biden to gain more support in the coming months if he can address their concerns about his record, age, and strength.

Democratic strategists and GOP analysts agree that Nikki Haley’s supporters expressing negativity towards Trump in polls should be a warning for Trump’s campaign. The early results and national polls about the Trump-Haley contest are sending a clear message to the Republican Party. Around one-fifth to one-third of GOP voters consistently express negative views about Trump in polls, especially regarding the January 6, 2021, events and his attempts to overturn the 2020 election.

In Iowa and New Hampshire, even though Haley didn’t win, she demonstrated that voters who are critical of Trump can form a significant coalition against him. This minority faction within the Republican Party, if mobilized, could pose a challenge for Trump in a general election.

Despite polls showing Trump leading in South Carolina, they also raise concerns about Trump’s general election prospects. The resistance to Trump among GOP primary voters could become a major problem for him in the general election. Issues such as Trump’s role in overturning abortion rights and concerns about chaos and craziness are contributing to this resistance.

The anti-Trump sentiment among Haley voters is significant, with a majority expressing dissatisfaction with Trump as the nominee. However, experts believe that many of these voters would eventually support Trump if he becomes the nominee. The key question is how many of them Biden can win over.

GOP pollsters believe Trump won’t face significant defections in a general election, as voters are likely to prioritize their self-interest, such as issues related to the economy, border security, crime, and safety. While some Haley voters may not vote for Trump in a general election, the majority are expected to align with the GOP.

Overall, the resistance to Trump among some GOP voters, as highlighted by the early primary results, is creating challenges for Trump’s campaign. The extent of this resistance and how it evolves in the coming months will play a crucial role in shaping the general election landscape.

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