Sunday, April 14, 2024

Biden against Trump is happening. What other choices do we have?

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A possible rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump is likely, as they both performed well in the Republican and Democratic primaries on Super Tuesday. However, both candidates have flaws and face challenges, making the upcoming election seem like a battle of mutual destruction. Republicans aim to portray Biden as old and feeble, while Democrats fear a second Trump term could endanger democracy.

In 2024, like previous elections, the winner might narrowly surpass the loser in key states. Despite slim chances of winning, third-party or independent candidates could influence the outcome. The Libertarian Party and Green Party, often on state ballots, have gained attention in close elections. Some argue that third-party candidates may divert votes from major-party contenders.

This year, independent candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West bring a new dynamic. Kennedy, with a famous name and political history, faces the challenge of getting on state ballots. West, an academic and social justice advocate, runs as an independent under the “Justice for All” party.

Another option is the group No Labels, formed as a centrist movement seeking a “unity” candidate. If they move forward, they may choose a Republican presidential candidate and a Democratic vice presidential candidate. However, the decision is pending, and the candidate selection process is yet to be determined.

Getting on the ballot poses a significant hurdle for independent candidates. Kanye West’s 2020 campaign, supported by Trump allies in some states, highlights the challenges. Kennedy’s campaign claims progress in swing states like Nevada, New Hampshire, Arizona, and Georgia, with super PAC support.

Polls show complex dynamics. In a head-to-head matchup, Trump narrowly leads Biden. However, when independent candidates are included, Trump’s lead decreases, with Kennedy, West, and Green Party’s Stein gaining support from different groups. Polls naming third-party candidates might overstate their actual support.

Historically, independent candidates tend to lose support as Election Day approaches, as seen with Ross Perot in 1992. Democrats are particularly concerned about independent candidates, opposing the No Labels campaign and raising issues about coordination between Kennedy’s campaign and the supporting super PAC.

In summary, the 2024 election could see a Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump rematch, but third-party and independent candidates may play a crucial role in shaping the outcome, adding complexity and uncertainty to the political landscape.

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